Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 2.254281 2.382815 2.521940 2.685112 2.873140 3.085480 3.347152
2025-07-27 2.121829 2.282608 2.463825 2.686670 2.958578 3.287340 3.728628
2025-08-03 2.034151 2.214426 2.423363 2.689174 3.027808 3.460274 4.085444
2025-08-10 1.928471 2.113573 2.331569 2.614527 2.984632 3.474088 4.218148
2025-08-17 1.866571 2.059162 2.289568 2.594695 3.004742 3.567519 4.472571
2025-08-24 1.815577 2.013912 2.254357 2.578327 3.024205 3.657227 4.731876
2025-08-31 1.772924 1.975995 2.225061 2.565848 3.045166 3.747642 5.005764
2025-09-07 1.747859 1.958117 2.219282 2.582752 3.106677 3.903571 5.428400
2025-09-14 1.684793 1.889678 2.144906 2.501512 3.018508 3.811888 5.355215
2025-09-21 1.656136 1.863768 2.124572 2.493128 3.036499 3.892660 5.644351
2025-09-28 1.616100 1.821879 2.081474 2.450518 2.999493 3.876958 5.723997
2025-10-05 1.612117 1.825930 2.098839 2.493204 3.094622 4.096031 6.392440
2025-10-12 1.614739 1.839523 2.130648 2.560142 3.236697 4.427742 7.535185
2025-10-19 1.594429 1.822078 2.119261 2.562740 3.274250 4.568658 8.242446
2025-10-26 1.575825 1.806130 2.109044 2.566052 3.312458 4.715822 9.081771
2025-11-02 1.534568 1.758927 2.054058 2.499404 3.226975 4.595687 8.860712
2025-11-09 1.511926 1.736062 2.032241 2.482171 3.225404 4.653180 9.391439
2025-11-16 1.491481 1.715585 2.013055 2.467959 3.227789 4.719075 10.019662
2025-11-23 1.473184 1.697520 1.996648 2.457182 3.235203 4.796807 10.791491
2025-11-30 1.464450 1.692035 1.997622 2.473071 3.290848 4.993113 12.500829
2025-12-07 1.427730 1.647873 1.942665 2.399441 3.179587 4.780258 11.446939
2025-12-14 1.413177 1.633634 1.930046 2.392148 3.189740 4.861972 12.460381
2025-12-21 1.389319 1.606308 1.898177 2.353479 3.140178 4.793256 12.375742